Canada 2015 and February 2016 plug-in vehicle sales
Canada plug-in sales increased by a moderate 32 % in 2015, moderate compared to the growth seen in Europe (+99 %) or China (+250 %). Looking at the 5 % decline for 2015 in USA, however, still the Canada result is an achievement. Tesla increased sales by 137 % and, with fewer competitors offered in Canada, the aging Chevy Volt Gen-1 and Nissan Leaf kept up better than in most other markets, esp. than in the US.
Canada sales increased from 5235 to 6933 Plug-ins and the pace was particularly strong in Q4 with 84 % volume increase vs Q4 of 2014. January and February 2016 showed few signs of "hangovers" from possible year-end campaigns; 22 % rsp. 61 % more Plug-ins were delivered. The New Volt has a large part in this development and it's back for the pole position in 2016.Market share, as % of the Canadian light vehicle market, is still low. It increased from 0,28 % in 2014 to 0,37 % in 2015, rank 20 among over 40 markets we are tracking. Plug-in vehicles have a short history in Canada and their population was only around 18 500 at the end of February. Canada's leading EV fleet management provider FleetCarma has the sales analysis by province published in a video. Watch it here and enjoy.
Trends for EVs vs PHEVs
We are counting the Chevy Volt among the plug-in hybrids and it's sales development had a strong impact on the ratio of BEVs to PHEVs. Weakening Volt sales during Q1-Q3 reduced the share of PHEVs in the mix, booming Tesla sales played the other part. The trend reversed when deliveries of the new Volt started in Q4.
For 2016 we expect 60 % BEVs in the mix and 40 % for PHEVs, the majority of them being Volts. The Volt is back to 25-30 % plug-in sector share in Canada, less than during the glory days of the 1st generation, but still. Volt sales can exceed 3000 units in Canada this year, twice the volume than any other year before.
3 models dominate
Tesla Model S (29 %), Chevy Volt (22 %) and Nissan Leaf (21 % share) are top-of-mind for Canadian plug-in vehicle buyers and stood for 72 % of all Plug-ins sold in 2015. This picture is consistent with the previous results for 2013 and 2014, leaving little room for other contenders. They they were left with shares of 5 % and lower in 2015.
Things might change though during 2016, as we see alternatives like BMW i3, Kia Soul and Audi A3 e-Tron gaining traction in January and February.